Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Tears and Fears In The Silver Bear Market: 1980-2016 Cycle Degree Review.



It seems commodities have been created to wreak havoc with the wave counters, as the silver market breaks all the conventional rules of a genuine impulse, but it gives us a plethora of choppy and overlapping wave structures.  Sure, we got a bullish phase from 1993 to the 2011 peak, but it was ugly just getting to 2011. 

A "C" wave bull market sure fits from 2001 to 2011 much better, but now the decline shows no real sign that a major bottom has arrived.  If a long spike to the downside were visable,  then I would think differently, but we are still in the middle of my parallel lines. Silver is in a pathetic attempt at trying to rally, so that can give up and head down one more time. 

  As we can see from the past that when stock mania kicks in silver has a tendency to go into a bear market as many other asset classes also do. 

Gold is famous for crashing when we least expect it, but it has done this many times before when  bull markets in stocks, arrive unexpectedly.  2011 was another year where stock mania took off and as a result gold and silver, oil crashed. 

 Even in the short term silver is not making the wave action necessary to sustain a big bull market. The good part about silver is that it hit a 24 month low of 16% with the bullish consensus report, which is far better than what gold hit at 28% bulls.