The US dollar went sideways for just about two months. This sideways action looks like a triangle. Looks are always deceiving, but the US dollar finally added on a trailing "C" wave decline.
At present we could be at the bottom of an "ABC" decline which could send the US dollar back up in another potential 3 wave pattern completing a bigger triangle at the same time.
Commercials are net short by a good healthy margin, but last week they also made a dramatic reversal, by going long over 6000 contracts and at the same time removing over 6000 short contracts.
Of course the speculators took the opposite end of the trade with very close to the same numbers. The main media more often quote the speculators, but they are the trend chasers and always get into a trap with the majority, in other words the speculators act just like the herd.
Next week should tell us if this pattern will hold or fail.