Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Saturday, March 19, 2016

Gold 2011-2015 Bear Market Review, With A Bull Market Commentary.



The gold bearish phase has lasted more than 4 years or so, and in Dec 2015 gold has bottomed before it exploded in dramatic fashion.  For now a Primary degree bottom will have a new home, but we will keep it in mind that we can be completely wrong.  We want to stay bullish as long as we can but be aware when the right correction comes with the right degree. 

For a 4th wave bottom in Primary degree to be true, we need to see 5 waves up in Intermediate degree.  I have talked about an impulse many times as they can produce those 1-2, 1-2,  and 1-2 like wave patterns, even a 4th set may show itself on well extended wave three runs.  The more sets of 1-2 waves that show up in wave three the less 1-2 wave sets will show up in wave 5.  

The first 1-2 wave I need for the entire run would be wave 1-2 in Intermediate degree and by the looks of this start we will not even see the Minor degree subdivisions. In other words, this is when I have to adjust my degree levels to get on track with a potential wave 1-2 in Intermediate degree.  

I suspect we still have a little ways to go before wave one is completed, then expect a bearish plunge that could freak out all the gold bulls, and send them running in terror. 

This would produce another opportunity to catch an Elliott Wave falling knife. All this planning is a constant thing as there is little room to move out of sequence when an impulse wave strikes. In this case it just may be a bigger impulse than anyone expects. 

When I give a description of what to expect, it is out there so when the markets deviate dramatically, or even before they deviate,  then an instant review must be initiated. 

Remember the real contrarians were already fully loaded with gold stocks by the time gold hit its bottom, so they will be the big winners in the end.