Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Gold Intraday Choppy Pattern Review

This is the April gold contract and since the February the 11th top we've had a very choppy rally with only the smallest degree impulse runs. This could also be a running triangle, which is my least favorite option at this point. If this were all part of a running "B" wave triangle, then yes, we could see a plunge in gold, but then also turn and crank right back up again. 

Gold hit a peak on the 24th, and then crashed into an "ABC" bottom by the 25th. I believe gold will still have to exceed the 24th peak of $1255 before a new leg down could happen.  Of course that could also carry gold to another record bullish run higher.  That would not be a big deal if my diagonal 5th wave remains on track. 

Eventually, gold will crash and fall below the $1190 price level as all inverted "ABC" like patterns  end up getting retraced. 

The beauty about Elliott Waves is the ability of any "ABC" move in one direction to reverse direction and completely retrace itself. Even the zigzags in a triangle will eventually all get retraced by the 5th wave.   They never mention this in the book this way as I had to figure out the hard way about this simple truth.  I look at the entire EWP as just one big idealized 5 wave pattern and always use a wave two as my base, I never use the 4th wave as a base as that would make wave 3 the shortest wave.

I'm bullish in the short term for one more move to newer highs, but after that all bets are off.