Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Tuesday, March 8, 2016

Gold Intraday Top Review: Just Another Correction?

Today is a new moon day, and they have been known to cause some wild reversals. I used to track them for many years, but never saw any consistent use as many times they were about 4 days out of sync. 

Right now it looks like we can head into a 4th wave correction, but still with upward  potential.

So far the impulse is still alive, but gold has to perform to confirm this. Gold needs to run further north to avoid dipping into critical previous waves when it corrects. In this case I have until about the $1250 price level and then my 4th wave would become trash. 

It would certainly be a sick joke, if gold crashed to below $1190, in a big swan dive.  I am not expecting that just yet, but it would not surprise me if gold made some wild move unexpected by the majority. 

For now the impulse is still in progress and it even can correct down with stocks as they have done this in sympathy with all the bears. 


Updated 12.07PM  PST

I hate to combine two alternate wave counts in one, but I would rather build a completely separate wave count. The count above is a diagonal 5th wave and it would be followed by a large degree crash if not a darn reversal of the entire bullish trend so far.  

The best wave counts always come at the last minute and sometimes we can catch them if we are reviewing the wave count on a constant basis.  This is a small diagonal, but don't let that fool you as they can be devastating for the bullish contrarian ego. This is especially true if we don't know that insiders have been selling their gold stocks, or that contrarian indicators are just not clear enough to take action.   

If the diagonal is true, then no amount of fancy support lines will make it stop, as the decline would slice right through this bottom trend line. Also, if gold crashed and oil remained strong, then oil would become more expensive as the oil ratio compresses. 

Using gold cash and oil cash prices we are at about a 33.37:1  gold/oil ratio, and if gold dropped only $100 this would change the ratio to 30:1. Any crazy crash below $1050 would only give us a 27: 1 gold/oil ratio. This still makes it very cheap for crude oil even after we shave $200 of the gold price.