Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Friday, March 11, 2016

India NIFTY50 Short Term Review

I would like to give readers a warning because I have never kept a running wave count on the Indian stock market, represented by the S&P chart below.  It takes a long time to develop a good wave count that warrants publishing, so we must expect some wild swings that come as a complete surprise.  To build a good profile I try to go back in history as far as I can and even that is as rare as finding a needle in a haystack.  

From the 2009 bottom any move sure does not look like a pure impulse wave, so I worked it as a potential diagonal 5th wave in Primary degree. I find it very hard to believe that any market can run into a 5 year bear market rally as I have never ever counted one out, at least since the 1900's.

We have to see if some of the small moves come in before I review the big picture again.  

The top in early March 2015 produced a bear market that from an Elliott Wave perspective is not rocket science that many of the waves overlap. Only the smallest 5 wave sequences can be counted out, but at first glance, this sure looked like a triangle decline.  

Very often I will do any wave analysis on paper first, then after I pull out my hair, I will make up the wave count in the computer. 

This index would have to roar and keep heading north if we are anywhere near a 4th wave bottom.

With a gap and my top trend line at about 7700-7800,  we should expect major resistance. If it pushes past that then we may get lucky. A much bigger "ABC" could also be in play so if that is the case, then this market will roll over and decline one more time.  

Visitors from India make up about the 5th largest group that visit this blog and I will post the bigger  the wave count  along with the next short term wave count.