Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Saturday, March 12, 2016

Natural Gas 2008-2016 Crash Review

I used to count this down as an impulse, but it would have to be a diagonal decline as the waves just overlap too much. Even the bull market that started in the early 1990's where diagonal waves, so its entire bullish phase was nothing but a big bear market rally.

From the 2008 peak to our present we had an expanded pattern inside a potential zigzag. 4th waves would also look like this  when they created expanded patterns. So if we take the stance we are finishing an "ABC" crash, then technically this chart should retrace the majority of its decline. 

If it is a 4th wave or an "ABC" correction NG should retrace up to and above the previous peak. NG is starting out fairly impulsive, so it would be nice to think that the NG bottom is in.  As crazy as it seems but you can blame technology for the implosion of NG prices after fracking became in wide use. 

There is one major indicator that tells us that a very extreme bottom is at hand or will be, is that the bullish consensus hit a low of 11% last week. The previous low of 12 %first got hit back in late Dec 2015. This is an extreme reading from which a bull market can spring from. (Sentiment readings cannot go to zero)  The US dollar bull market and the gold bull market both only saw 14% lows and they spawned major bull markets. 

On the Intraday scale it looks like we are still missing a wave 3-4 bottom, but diagonals can end like that.