Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Tuesday, March 15, 2016

Silver 1980-2016 Review: What Is It?



On the big scale there sure seems to be something wrong or I should say "something different"  with the silver wave patterns. They are different in respect to the extreme choppy type of waves through the entire bear market or since its 1980 peak.  It is hard to explain to any first time readers in what we can see with these wild patterns. 

The mass media has brainwashed us into thinking that the metals bull market was a secular bull market, but it was gold that masked and hid, silvers true patterns as many wave counters lumped them in all together.  They also ignored the XAU as well, as all its choppy waves were too hard to count out. The HUI resembled a bull market much better so they all switched. Meanwhile the XAU has now completely retraced its bullish phase.  

When we look back to 1993 we can see that silvers bullish phase started long before gold really got going and when it did top out it made a pathetic attempt at a major double top before it succumbed to another big bearish move that we are presently in.  To say that silver is going into another secular bull market will be absolutely false from my perspective.   Maybe another major double top would be in its future, but that could end up being another biggest selling time in silvers history. 


Any bullish move up that is completely retraced is a bear market rally, and we had three of them in silvers 13 year bearish phase, from 1980-1993. The price low in 1993,  has never been completely retraced. 

This 1993 bottom is my present "A" wave bottom in Primary degree.  Unless my wave count is way off course, we still should see a big rally, but it will eventually end up being a fake as well. 

Not much different than what crude oil may do in the next few years or so. The thing is silver would have to perform beyond the call of duty, to be in this bullish move right now. Of course the US dollar would have to implode as well to give commodities all a kick.