In order for the gold market to roar, which it does not want to do at this time, we need the US dollar to have a new trend heading down. I know many remain staunchly bullish and we may have some crazy surprise really still in our future. We could have seen an ending with a diagonal three wave thrust. This means that something new is heading our way and the US dollar can slump slowly with a very choppy behavior.
What else is new as these types of choppy markets are usually some type of diagonal which means we could be heading down a longer and bigger correction. That would favor gold and commodities because season gold buying will definitely not do it.
The commercials are still very heavily net short on the US dollar, but when that situation reverses for some unknown reason then another review is necessary. My last bullish consensus report dated March the 1st, showed the US dollar at 78% bulls, down from a 24 month peak of 91%. 91% is pretty high so if we see a real big slump in that number, the trend in the US dollar is down. I no longer am getting that service so it is best to not comment on it until I do see the real numbers in front of me.
Since the US dollar seems to be declining erratically then we could look for another big "ABC" type pattern. That is my goal at this time.
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