Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Saturday, March 19, 2016

WTI Crude Oil 1991-2016 Review: Will Oil Go to $200 This Time?

We are in the month of May with our oil contracts, and this is one of the best times to review the big picture. We have to check the big picture to make sure that the market gremlins didn't change anything while we had our noses buried in the charts at the intraday level.  :)  So far so good.

The recent crash has sliced the bottom of my parallel lines which is not a big deal because I did not cheat in forcing a new set of lines.  It's not a big deal in the big scope of things as I put little value into forced trend lines that produce throw-over, and throw-under wave patterns.  Creating wave counts based on forced trend lines are purely subjective wave counts.  There is also a huge running Head&Shoulders pattern that should not be ignored.  

Are we still going to haggle if the real bottom is in or not, or do we wait and see until oil is over $100 again.   None of the contrarians are waiting as they are already riding this oil bull for as long as they can.  My wave count is looking at a potential inverted "ABC" move in Intermediate degree consisting of three Minor degree moves.  

We are still far away from any "A" wave in Minor degree, and it may also soar to the point where the "B" wave will be hard to tell the difference from that of an impulse wave.  Long term crude oil should go above $115 again and anything more would be icing on the cake. $200 oil should never get hit on this trip north, but a double top may happen. 

As soon as the mainstream media forecasts $200 oil again or the words "Peak Oil" spews from their mouths, then the oil party will be over and oil will crash again.   

It will be a challenge to catch the turnings before they happen and even more of a challenge to catch the Elliott Wave falling knife. (C Wave)

With the USA now being an exporter of oil as well,  this could make inventory levels change when we least expect it, driving the oil price higher.

I see the big wave count as a triangle inside a Primary degree "B" wave and not the fancy "WXY" waves that all the SC and GSC degree wave counters use. "WXYXZ" waves mean we don't have a clue where we are, and I'm not going to waste my time trying figure out the bigger picture. 

Have a great weekend!