Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Wednesday, March 16, 2016

WTI Crude Oil Intraday Review: Iran Oil Is Irrelivant!



The news has been that Iran pumping oil has freaked out investors and therefore oil has dipped. Well, it is obvious that oil does not care what Iran pumps in oil, as oil returned to its bullish phase immediately after such news.   This is one thing about the markets that I love to see as once a trend is established,  that the market gives the middle finger salute, and carries on with the trend at hand. 

Once a true impulse has been established nothing will derail that trend until it is ready to do so.  A good impulse has a certain behavior to it that can't be stopped by words alone, until a full sequence of 5 waves are completed, in whatever degree we may be in. 

At any degree level we always have a minimum of 5 core patterns that we have to deal with, 13 if you want to include all complex wave structures.  Eliminating all but a couple is a constant  job we have to do to even get close to catching any turnings.  By constantly reviewing as far back as we can, this keeps us searching for a better fit.  The quest for a better fitting wave count should never be abandoned. Once you do you turn into a SC or GSC degree wave counter! :) 

SC or GSC degree wave counts in oil have never been confirmed, because to get into this high degree they forced their wave patterns into postage sized patterns. Forcing or squeezing  a wave count into the pattern you want will never work as that is subjective wave counting. 

The June contracts will reflect the impulse better than this April contract and that will match other asset classes as well. It is the nature of the beast where charts distort from one asset class to another simply by the same pattern stretching a bit or not enough. 

If the 4th wave is completed, then we still have a long way to go as 5th waves tend to extend many times depending how strong the overall market is.

The market should give us a warning when it is about to die or a big correction is due by the change of the wave action behavior. We may start to see diagonals or triangle 4th waves, but most of all the patterns will start to overlap and it becomes difficult to maintain an impulse wave count.