I am very bullish looking from a longer point of view, but that does not eliminate the potential to be too early, especially when there is a doubtful type bottom. We just recently spiked out again and now will be the time to see if a correction unfolds or we crash to one more record bear market low.
The last waves were very diagonal looking waves, which usually spell trouble.
In other words, this fast rally could have been a "C" wave bull market and that means only one thing, a 100%
retracement move would follow. I have drawn my two parallel lines, but don't read too much into it, as I can cheat and bend the bottom trend line up a bit. Even if the big bottom is already in, then we could be at a potential wave 1 and still get a substantial correction, retracing 60% of our present move.
The trick will be to catch a bottom if this is the start of an impulse, as we don't want to miss the next big bullish phase.
Looking at the gasoline chart, we have a huge gap that opened up which is a very bearish indicator in the short term.
Never look at this crash with a narrow point of view as this real bear market started from the peak of 2008. Staring from that 2008 peak it still looks like a big "ABC" crash or as EWI call it
a "X" wave flat. I don't like to use any "WXY" waves as they make you lazy and not take the time to find the bigger the wave count.
I have always tried to explain exactly what type of wave and what degree I need for any move. This is where the "C" wave bull market description comes in. In this big picture we also had a 'B" wave bull market, which also can get retraced by 100% or more. Sometimes you get running flats when this does not occur, but in the bigger picture all "ABC" crashes get retraced.
It may take some time yet, but I can see oil passing the $115 price level once again.