Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Friday, April 22, 2016

Crude Oil 1990-2016 Review: Glut What Glut?

Usually the rallies are never this large if a world oil glut is going to get worse. Besides the wave structures are far too impulsive at this time as well. It is when we get a serious correction is when we have another look. So far the gold/oil ratio is still confirming an extremely low oil price when we use gold as money. 

I believe the bottom in early 2016  could be a "D" wave bottom in intermediate degree and that we are working slowly towards an "E" wave top in Intermediate degree.  This also could mean that the "E" wave top will also be a "B" wave top in Primary degree, which the brother "A" wave ended in 1986. This makes 2016 close to a 30 year time period with a few more years to go before another major top may appear. 

This eventually calls for WTI oil to exceed $115 again and even create a double top close to that $147 price level. This may seem like oil is in a secular bullish move but all it is doing is finishing a potential triangle "B" wave.  What will follow the "B" wave should not be just a guess, but we would need 5 waves down in Intermediate degree.  This would complete a 4th wave bottom in Cycle degree. 

Also, what price destruction we will get once this "B" wave top has completed should also not be just a guess, as it would have to crash below all my letters since the 1980 peak. This should be close to the $10 price level. This may all happen before the next solar cycle bottom, which still can be 4-5 years away. 

Of course we will also be in another world oil glut,  and panic will dominate the oil market once again. 

At this time I believe crude oil can be in one single SC degree pattern before we run out or simply lose interest due to other means of transportation being developed. This single SC degree wave zero started in 1859! Any single impulse wave structure can be started with a wave zero and my stock Cycle degree wave zero started in 1932.