Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Wednesday, April 20, 2016

E-Mini SP500 Intraday February, April 2016 Review



The markets keep pushing higher above and beyond all expectations.  What else is new as I see it as the job of the markets to keep as many people confused or trapped in one direction as much as possible. Especially all the Elliott Wave counters as we constantly review or update wave counts that have failed or will fail. 

This SP500 has gone too high to where any expanded pattern is no longer viable, but another 5th wave is.  If the 4th wave has already completed with a flat or a triangle, then there is still a chance that we are just coming up to a potential wave one in Minor degree.   We are only a few points away from breaking new record highs and even if they do not do this, we are left with double and triple tops that will take many years to sort out.

Which wave count belongs to the bullish cycle and which belongs to a new trend is not determined by new highs. 

The line I have at the 1920 price level is only the 61% retracement level of the net move from the February bottom to now.  Even that has no meaning as 40 or 50% could work just as well. If a wave 2 decline is in the cards then, it may still take another 5-8 months or so to play out the remainder waves 3-4-5.  Then it would be the job of the next president to screw up the economy again. 

In the long run the markets are going to head into another large degree bear market, but at this time they are having a real problem in figuring out when they are going to do it.