Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Wednesday, April 13, 2016

US Dollar Intraday Review: Is It the Real Bottom Or Just Another Fake?

The biggest decline can only fit into a diagonal type wave with a present bottom at the 93.600 price level. If this were a big bottom, then another price deflation in gold and other metals would happen. 

Since we had a very complex decline, we could also be in an expanded type "B" wave. These are very common waves, but what is not common is detecting them before hand. We could be on a small "C" wave to finish off the "B" wave top, but I would like to see the US dollar still rally closer to or above the 95.00 price level.  After that, the US dollar can sink to another new low. 

Still, this will not keep going forever as the biggest decline has many diagonal waves to it. There is still a good chance that the US dollar will trigger the 92 price level, which still seems light years away from getting hit. 

The US dollar does not have to go anywhere near the top trend line, but it sure would not hurt this wave count if it did.  I will always keep my trend lines in parallel to each other as I refuse to create forced wave counts with pretty throw-over and throw-under channel lines.  Bending and twisting trend lines are created by subjective opinions, which forces a wave count where there is none. 

This always can produce higher degrees than what is real so next thing we know we are in some mythical super duper bear market.  Crude oil is one  prime example of a very forced wave count perpetuated by the SC and GSC degree wave counting herd. 

If the big deflation is coming then the US dollar must still soar as everything would get cheaper in price when compared to the US dollar.