Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Saturday, April 2, 2016

WTI Crude Oil 1980-2016 Review




Reviewing every big degree wave count is always important and should never be accepted as being ok until we look over the big picture. If we don't review when we are looking for a better fit than we are just following the herd just like everybody else. 

The oil wave count started back in 1859 as it is pretty hard to assign a wave pattern to an asset class still stuck in the ground.  I also do not believe this started from a 4th wave base and the entire life span of crude oil may only be one wave in SC degree as it could fall out of favor or we could even run out.   I have full confidence that this world is not completely devoid  of smart people as when one energy source is set to die for any reason, another one will step in and take its place. 

Methane, hydrogen, synthetic oil all can replace crude oil when it is time as the marketplace is very good at solving these problems.  Governments couldn't solve their way out of a wet paper bag  if they tried.  

Whale oil also came and disappeared, and the world didn't stop dead for lack of fuel.  

Many crude carriers are going around the Cape as they refuse to pay the high fees of going through the Suez Canal.   So many more tankers can be filled that way with nobody the wiser as storing oil is still the cheapest way to  invest in oil.  The US oil exporting has come to a screeching halt and now is importing again, so that plan didn't last that long!  

I think what the majority are working are all forced wave counts as they try to ram a high degree pattern into a small physical space like the 2006 correction. Forcing a wave count produces throw-over and throw-under wave patterns and they are the tell tale signs of a wave count that needs,  some major fixing.  

Cycle degree wave 4 is far from being filled as this giant "B" wave needs to be fully played out, but in the end we may end back down at the $10 price level before another big bullish phase kicks in. 

At this time my bet is still that oil has to cross the $115 price level and if we are lucky a scary double top can happen. 

Using "WXY" waves is more dangerous as it makes us oblivious to what any pattern really is and it is one major reason why I will never use "WXY" waves. Hell any monkey can use "WXY" waves  if you feed him enough bananas!  

It is far better to use and build a very good impulse wave pattern that we can follow so we know what we are supposed to be looking for, rather than trying to force into what we are seeing.  





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