Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Saturday, April 9, 2016

WTI Crude Oil Cash Chart Cycle Degree Review: 1980-2016

I have looked at many other professional oil wave counts and some of them are so far out of sequence  that it seems the book was thrown out the window.  The main reason is that most wave counts are forced wave counts. One time an Intermediate degree move is huge, but then they force a Primary degree into a small postage sized pattern. 

These are forced subjective wave counts, which I try to eliminate by only using 2 or 3 parallel lines.
The big picture I am running with is a Primary degree triangle in the "B" wave position and our recent crash bottom is a potential "D" wave bottom in Intermediate degree. In other words, since the 2008 top,  crude oil suffered a big "ABC" crash.  If you look at the idealized charts we know that "ABC" crashes can retrace the entire crash sooner or later. At a minimum it would take another Intermediate degree move to correct this crude oil crash. 

This makes the $115 price level a prime target with the potential to match another major double top at $147 or more. Even by $1 more, would satisfy the potential for an "E" wave top. 

This would also be the "B" wave top in Primary degree from which another huge decline should ensue.  As of last week, crude oil seems to keep heading north, but I'm looking for a potential correction before another leg cranks up. 

The gold/oil ratio has broken some extreme records with a few registered at 45:1.This was extreme by any means and eventually that extreme will swing back the other way.  This may still take a few years, so it is not going to happen overnight.