I look at all the markets from a Cycle degree perspective or one big set,
5 waves in Cycle degree. In oil the Cycle degree sequence could have finished with the peak of 1980, but I am convinced that a wave 4 in Cycle degree is still years ahead of us.
What we have had since the 1980 peak is a Primary degree "B" wave which contained a triangle. Since the end of January crude oil started as a pretty good looking impulse wave, but it quickly fell apart, as certain critical waves started to overlap.
At this time I'm treating this as a potential 4th wave top in Minuette degree, with another zigzag type decline in progress. The rally from early April was very steep and also was fairly ugly when it started. Still, we should be coming to an end or the very least another correction is due.
I'm hesitant to call this a wave 2 top as then we would still see a major low as wave 3-4-5 would need to play out, and wave 3 or wave 5 could be extended.
In short, if oil were to crash to a new low it could turn so fast and soar once again, in another fit of madness. When it does that, then it should also have much more staying power.
At best we could see an "ABC1" count and we are in an "ABC2" count right now.