Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Saturday, October 22, 2016

Gold Daily Chart And The Impending Bear Trap!

In late 2015 the gold price had bottomed at about the same time that the US dollar hit a top at the 100 price level. The gold swing of 5 waves up was definitely a diagonal move, and our present decline sure looks like it was just another corrective move.  Commercials added to their long positions last week, which is a very bullish sign. Meanwhile the trend chasing speculators, added some more contracts to their short positions. It is the trend chasers (managed money) that are wrong most of the time, as they are guaranteed to get themselves into a trap. 

Last week gold may have seen its bottom from which it should break out in a "C" wave bullish run that may shock us in how fast and far any gold move can make.  I always look for bullish moves when the general market participants are very bearish, as that is what EWP is all about. If any one of my wave counts do not support the contrarians with their bullish outlook then chances are very good that my wave count is wrong. 

This was very well demonstrated in stocks in early 2009, as wave counters missed an entire bull market, yet all the contrarians were very bullish at that time. Insiders buying their company stock as it was crashing, are considered part of the contrarian crowd.

There is no difference in gold as they all hated gold back in 2015 as well. Look what happened from that 2015  bearish mood. I believe we bottomed at a very high degree, so this gold bullish phase has still lots of room to go north.  Any "C" wave bull market can produce a vertical move as the stock market and the US dollar crashes. 

A bullish gold price could be joined with a bullish Euro move as well, so at this time the Euro bears would also be in a bear trap.