Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Sunday, December 4, 2016

T-Bond Crash And The Death Of A 34 Year Bull Market!

I'm sure you all have read about this, "Great Rotation" that is going to happen! Well, I believe it's all a big line of BS coming from a bunch of emotional traders and analysts!  They base this all on the fact that T-Bonds have crashed since the election, when in fact the T-Bonds saw their peaks back in July 2016.  Technically T-Bonds were already in a bear market months before the election, but the public really doesn't care.  They will blame Donald Trump as the cause regardless. 

I show the last high in July, 11, 2016 with a 177 price level.  For close to 34 years, this bull market has endured, but now that T-Bonds have crashed we have to review the entire bull market.  With all the choppy waves, it is best described as one mother of a bear market rally, as choppy waves most always indicate a move going against the larger trend. 

If this is the case, then, nothing short of a complete bond bull market retracement, is in our future.  That would mean a big dip down to the 55 price level. Any Primary degree 4th can also act like a "D" wave, but both of them would get retraced as well. "D" wave tops are the mother of bull traps, as the EWP clearly mentions. 

Anyone that gives you support numbers for what is coming, does not know that the T-Bond bull market is dead. Any support price will just be a temporary holding pattern, and you don't want to try and catch a falling knife with T-Bonds.  Rates, should keep going up for the markets, but that does not mean that the Fed will follow.  The Fed may be forced to follow higher and higher rates as every major super power is trying to bring down the USD as well.  

It may have been a 34 year bull market, but the impending bear market could have a very short life span. 2021 may be a good bottom target date, but only time will help to confirm this.