In the last few days of last week, crude oil returned with a vengeance, and is now in a position to break out past what I show is a "D" wave top. Until last week I was working a very short term bearish wave count, which was trashed with the spike last week.
A move that breaks a rule, instantly calls for a review going back as far as we think we need to. In this case we need the daily chart and look at oil from the bullish perspective. In reality, I just pulled an old wave count from my inventory, where the November 2016 low was a potential running flat.
From that November 2016 low we now can see a potential 5 wave sequence that is a pretty rough looking impulse, but may work well as a "C" wave bullish phase. Crude oil is only 55 cents away from clearing the important "D" wave. At $56.20 we would clear the entire mess of waves, from late 2016 and early 2017.
If this next bullish phase comes true then I sure would like to see crude oil eventually pass that $60-$65 price level. Extensions can happen as well, so in a fit of madness, crude oil could spike past those numbers.
The Gold/Oil ratio is still pretty decent which is at 22.89:1
Every conceivable reason for the crude oil price spike is being used, and many contradict themselves as well. This is all a waste of time if we understand that a big crude oil bull market has been in progress since the 2016 bottom. Even a big bear market rally can send oil prices flying past old highs, so we are far from finished. Until the Gold/Oil ratio turns to the extreme, and the planet is bullish on oil again, the oil bull market is still alive and has much further to go.